This week marks 13 years since the end of Muammar Gaddafi’s quixotic rule of oil-rich Libya as he was assailed by an angry mob and lynched on 23 August 2011. In the weeks that followed, all traces of the man who had held a tight grip on the country for four decades were being erased. Posters were defaced and the Bab al Azzizia barracks that served as his headquarters was razed to the ground and with it the macabre secrets that it held.

At the time, there was a sense of hope that things would change, that the armed militias would be disbanded and the so-called Jamahiriya or “state of the masses” that was conceived by Gaddafi would give way to a true democracy. Libyans are still waiting for salvation from the chaos that ensued.

The UN has warned that the status quo in Libya is “not sustainable,” referring to the country as unstable. That’s putting it mildly. For this is a country that is split in two between its eastern and western parts with their own administrations and where much of the oil is in territory controlled by a powerful militia leader backed by external powers. A general election that would rectify this anomalous state of affairs has been pushed back several times. In the meantime, the rival factions appear to have reached an accommodation that suits the key players in this game of political chess.

Stephanie Koury, Deputy Special Representative and Officer-in-Charge of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), told the UN Security Council on 20 August that “recent unilateral acts” by rival sides in Libya led to the deterioration in political and economic stability coupled with rising insecurity. In recent days, oil production has again been disrupted while the Central Bank has fallen victim to a power play.

What Libya needs is a unified government but neither side seems ready to cede control as vested interests have trumped all efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement.  The internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) is based in Tripoli and currently headed by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. The Government of National Stability (GNS) is located in the east, where General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) holds sway. The House of Representatives is also based in the east rather than in the capital.

Khoury said the past two months have seen unilateral moves by the LNA and forces loyal to the GNU, which had sparked mobilization by each side. She referred to recent clashes near Tripoli that served as a reminder that heavy armed groups still pose a threat to stability.

On 7 August, the National Oil Company (NOC) declared force majeure on exports from the 300,000 b/d capacity Sharara oil field after production of all but 10,000 b/d was halted due to local protests though the region’s Fezzan Movement denied responsibility (Libya Declares Force Majeure On Sharara Amid Renewed Political Tensions). The incident raised political tensions and fears of renewed armed conflict between the rival powers. Libya’s oil fields and its export terminals have often been targeted by Haftar as a bargaining chip after he failed to seize Tripoli militarily thanks to Turkey’s intervention on the side of the GNU. Sharara lies in the southeastern region that Haftar and his army control.

A separate incident involving a pipeline fire hit output at the 300,000 b/d Waha field and served to highlight the dilapidated state of Libya’s energy infrastructure, which requires an injection of cash that the Central Bank would normally provide.

Waha is key to Libya’s plans to boost crude output to 2mn b/d from 1.2mn b/d currently. ConocoPhillips, which operates the field in partnership with TotalEnergies, says Waha’s “effective capacity” rose from 285,000 b/d to 300,000 b/d over the course of 2023, with output hitting the latter level in Q2 for the first time since 2013 (Libya’s Sharara Outage Continues Amid Intensifying Political Tensions). Long-stalled multi-$bn investment plans would see output double to 600,000 b/d. But Total and Conoco have said that improved contract terms are needed for them to sign off on the plans, which were on hold amid a tussle between Dbeibeh and then Oil Minister Mohamed Aoun (Libya Eyes Improved Waha Terms For Conoco & Total After Aoun Ouster).

General Haftar’s LNA has in recent days mobilized troops to the Fezzan region in the country’s southwest, raising concerns of an imminent military confrontation and a renewed attempt to take Tripoli. Of great concern has been the military buildup around Ghadames near the borders with Algeria and Tunis, which led Dbeibeh to declare that Libya’s unity was “a red line” and vowed that his government was committed to building a strong army.

Meanwhile, Mohamed al-Menfi head of the Tripoli-based Presidential Council – in his capacity as the Supreme Commander of the armed forces – ordered the immediate return of all troops to their barracks and prohibited any mobilization without his approval.

Dbeibeh’s own tenure, which has been tenuous at best, was declared ended by the eastern-based parliament on 13 August, sowing even more confusion into the complex web of Libyan politics.

Parliamentary spokesperson Abdullah Belhaiq was quoted as saying that the assembly considered the eastern cabinet of Osama Hammad as “the legitimate government until a new unified government is chosen.” The parliament also declared its speaker, Aguila Saleh, as commander of the LNA in place of Menfi.

Dbeibeh had been under increasing pressure from political opponents, including former ally al-Sadiq al-Kabir, the governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) who himself was dismissed this week by the Presidency Council based in Tripoli.

There were reports that Menfi had been pressured by Dbeibeh to remove Kabir, who had reportedly been holding off funds from the PM over political differences. The CBL is the one single state entity into which oil revenues flow and its stability is crucial to the country’s economic health. The loss of Sharara export revenues has been costly, estimated by MEES at $250mn during the first three weeks of the shutdown.

Also at stake are hopes of recovering roughly $70bn in the frozen assets. The Libya’s sovereign wealth fund had said earlier this month that it expected the UN to approve its investment plan by year-end, allowing the country to manage its frozen overseas funds for the first time in more than a decade (Libya Expects Breakthrough Decision On Frozen Assets By End-2024).

But political instability, lack of transparency and discord may still stand in the way while the game of political musical chairs will do little to win the international community’s confidence.

MEES.com – by Kate Dourian, Contributing Editor