Over the past decade, energy and power politics have shaped major developments in the area. A growing number of exploration and production activities in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea have brought several oil and gas discoveries offshore Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and maybe Lebanon.
The energy impact of the Gaza war may only delay the next tranche of natural gas projects in the eastern Mediterranean region. But should the war intensify to include Lebanon on Israel’s northern border and deepen even further in Gaza’s south, the impact could be to reorient a regional gas grid from a north-south orientation (Egypt, Israel, Jordan and potentially Cyprus nad Lebanon) to a west-east, larger network to include Iraq.
It’s obvious that the ongoing war in Gaza has created new realities and socio-political circumstances that have not only destabilized the regional order in the Middle East but also drawn attention to the shifting balance of power that upholds the world “order.”
In June 2024, Lebanon’s energy ministry has extended a deadline for companies to bid for exploration rights for offshore oil and gas fields in its third licensing round until March next year – Q1 2025.
The government originally set a deadline of July 3, 2024 for bidding in the licensing round for nine maritime blocks, which was launched in January.
The Lebanese Petroleum Administration said the deadline had been extended to March 17, 2025 to provide enough time to monitor “accelerating regional and international developments,” find ways of attracting more interest from companies and “work towards achieving economic stability.”
The statement did not mention the ongoing hostilities between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, which have been trading fire for more than eight months in parallel with the Gaza war.
An industry source told Reuters that the exchanges of fire had been a major factor in the decision to extend the deadline.
Lebanon has extended previous licensing rounds repeatedly, in some cases because there had been no applications.
Lebanon formally delineated its maritime border with Israel in October 2022 after years of US-mediated talks. It had hoped this would pave the way for an influx of bids for oil and gas exploration in its waters.
According to documents released online, nine out of 10 blocks in the EEZ are included in the tender, including Block No. 4. Previously explored without success in 2020 by the consortium TotalEnergies/Eni/Novatek, the block is now under TotalEnergie/EniQatarEnergy following Russia’s departure amid international tensions related to the Ukraine war. Block No. 4 is situated off the coast of Batroun in the southern tip of North Lebanon.
The war on Gaza has forced new realities to the geopolitical scene, particularly regarding Eastern Mediterranean energy security. The regional conflict has further destabilized Lebanon’s fragile socio-economic situation especially in energy sector and in consequence Lebanon’s Oil and Gas Future is still in Limbo!
